Sunday, 25 March 2012

Why Does Carroll Keep Getting Dropped?

Liverpool are a much more effective team with Andy Carroll than they are without him. That is not an opinion, it is a fact. For proof, take a look at the following chart, showing our results when he does and doesn't start:

Liverpool Performances With and Without Carroll Starting
With Carroll starting, Liverpool’s record is W13 D4 L4 – a 62% win percentage. When he hasn’t started, it drops to W8, D6, L7 – a 38% win percentage.

This is not a coincidence. The work he does off the ball, dragging defenders out of position and generally being a nuisance, creates the space for the likes of Suarez and Gerrard to exploit. In the 3-0 win against Everton, he was a constant menace, jumping for just about every ball that went up in the air and not allowing either of the central defenders any time to settle.

In their first start together, Suarez, Carroll and Gerrard showed that together they could offer Liverpool a formidable attacking threat. It is therefore very surprising that Carroll has not started a game in the league since. Less surprising, given the stats above, is the fact that we lost the subsequent games without him.

So, if it is not his performances on the pitch that are getting him dropped, what is it?

Carroll has yet to start more than four consecutive games for Liverpool. For a young player trying to find his way into a new team, these stuttering appearances cannot be helping his development as a player. When you consider that he is getting dropped even when he plays very well, it is bound to also be affecting his mentality.

He has had well publicised off the field issues since he started his career. It could well be, therefore, that there are things happening off the field that are stopping Kenny from giving him a good run of games on it.

I would be interested to know your views on why Carroll isn’t a regular starter, because it is a mystery to me.

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  1. I too cannot believe he hasn't started more. Seems a waste to leave him on the bench and bring him on because he is not an impact player. He needs more starts and players around him to bring into the game of the hooballs are wasted. Good post and the stats are useful too.

  2. Definitely something going on, even if you forget how much we paid for him, the fact that any striker getting the last 20 minutes of a game, a year after signing, is mind boggling. What's more surprising is Carroll seems so accepting of it.

  3. Funny that after all the comments about his price (which of course Carroll can't control) the facts show just how essential he is to the side.

  4. Totally stupid and pointless - that statistic shows nothing and is not even correct (by your reckoning Liverpool have lost 11 games this season!) But not all games are equal anyway.

    One of Liverpool’s best results, 2-1 away in the league to Chelsea, which Carroll didn’t start, is not equal to winning 2-1 at home to Wolves, a game Carroll started and contributed no goals or assists.
    League draws against Manchester United and Manchester City, which he didn’t start, are not equivalent to home draws against Swansea and Blackburn, which he did (and again which he neither scored or assisted).

    Also look at arguably the other standout result in the league for Liverpool, 2-0 away to Arsenal. Carroll will get a win for starting it despite him being taken off at 0-0.

    If you’re analysing an individual use his many individual statistics (Carroll‘s are so poor). If you want to use meaningless statistics you could also write an article that goes
    “Liverpool are a much more effective team without Steven Gerrard. That is not an opinion, it is a fact. With him starting this season Liverpool win 37% of games, without him starting that rises to 56%” Because that is also true but totally meaningless.

    The basis for the article is just really thick.

  5. Needs to stay off the ket YNWA

  6. Liverpool win rate with Carroll doesnt have as much to do with Carroll himself, as it does with Suarez. Suarez is not the out-and-out striker Kenny uses him as when Carroll doesnt start, and his is thus less effective. Suarez needs a number 9 to play off, whether that no.9 is Carroll or not, he would do better playing in such a team.


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