Legal Hypocrisy in the Terry & Suarez Race Rows

The two biggest football racism scandals in recent years have been, and will be, tried in very different ways.

First, there is the FA judicial process endured by Suarez. He was found guilty and banned for eight matches, a punishment which is almost certain to be challenged as to its legality by Liverpool FC. To get to the bottom of this legality, and the contrast to the Terry case, it is important to understand how guilt versus innocence is judged in the British system. There are two main processes. In the civil courts they refer to "the balance of probabilities". The winner of a civil case is the one who convinces the judge that their story is more than 50% likely to be true. In a criminal case, such as John Terry's, the crime must be proven "beyond reasonable doubt", or close to 100% certain, before the defendant can be found guilty. 

The FA have obviously gone down the civil law route with Suarez in coming to their judgement. Immediately you can see the unfairness in relation to how the Terry matter has been dealt with. 50.1% certainty to 99% certainty is a very big step indeed.

In any case, let's go down the civil route with Suarez and explore where the "balance of probabilities" lie. The alleged offence took place in a crowded goalmouth as a corner was being taken. It is reasonable to expect, therefore, that a conversation between the two players would have been overheard by at least one other person. All of the evidence we have heard suggests that it was not. Therefore, surely, the "balance of probabilities" is in favour of Luis Suarez.

Had the CPS looked at the Suarez case in the same manner that they have looked at Terry's, there is no way that they would have proceeded with a prosecution. There is not enough evidence for the case to have been proven beyond reasonable doubt. As it stands, Suarez must fight through a civil judicial process which appears to make up its punishments as it goes along.

In terms of the next steps, Liverpool must lodge an appeal with the FA within 14 days. That appeal will be heard and, from the FA's perspective, the case will then be closed. However, there is a body that can overrule the FA's decision - the Court of Arbitration for Sport. The CAS may find this case hard to overrule, given its subjectivity. The CAS tend to look into whether the correct legal steps were taken and whether all processes and procedures are legally watertight. For example, in the recent case of Wen Tong, a Judo star who was stripped of a gold medal for doping, the CAS ruled in her favour because the anti-doping agency had violated certain articles of the Judo federation's rules and regulations during her initial prosecution.

In the case of Suarez, there is no evidential breach of procedure by the FA. What is being contested is a subjective judgement. Whether the CAS would get involved in such a case is questionable.

 

Meanwhile, the Terry case will be judged on whether it is beyond reasonable doubt that he abused Ferdinand racially. This is much harder to prove than his guilt on the balance of probabilities would be. So what happens next? Terry will appear in a Magistrates court to try to clear his name. If he succeeds, the FA is likely to side with the official judicial process. If he fails, he will get a £2,500 fine and the FA will have a political green light to hand him a similar punishment to that given to Suarez.

The key point of difference is that Suarez hasn't been given this opportunity to clear his name in a court of law.  The FA have played judge and jury and he will find the system incredibly difficult to break down. Put simply, the way both cases have been handled is completely unfair.

If any club know how to win a court battle, it is Liverpool FC. The club will stand shoulder to shoulder with Suarez and do absolutely everything to help him clear his name.

Follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com/joescouse_lfc

More on criminal law vs. civil law: http://www.inbrief.co.uk/legal-system/difference-between-civil-criminal-law.htm

Graft, Craft and How to Fill "The Lucas Role"

Getting the right mix of grafters and crafters is vital to a team's success. A grafter is the type of player who makes up for any failings in natural technical ability through sheer blood, guts and endeavour. Think Dirk Kuyt. On the opposite end of the scale you have crafters, players who have a very high level of technical ability but are are more tactile in their play. Jordan Henderson fits into this box.

Liverpool's squad has many players who immediately strike you as being on one end of the scale or the other. In the graft box I would place Lucas, Kuyt, Carroll, Carragher, Flanagan, Kelly, Bellamy, Spearing and Skrtel. In the craft box I would place Maxi, Adam, Henderson, Enrique, Auerlio, Johnson, Coates, Downing and Shelvey. Then you have the players who you can't really put in either box, since they excel in both areas: Suarez, Gerrard and Agger.

I have plotted the players dependant on how far towards one end of the scale I perceive them to be:

The higher up on the chart a player sits, the better (subjectively!) he is. The further to the left or right he sits, the more of a grafter or a crafter he is. Kuyt is on the far left, Henderson on the far right. At various positions along the top are the four truly world class players we have, the spine of our team. Lucas is the only world class player we have who is on one extremity of the scale, and the very nature of his position demands this. Like Mascherano, Gatusso and Makelele, Lucas is a world class grafter.

With this in mind, when looking for a direct replacement for Lucas you surely have to pick from the 'graft' box. This immediately discounts Shelvey, Adam and Henderson since the qualities these players possess are not applicable to the demands of the role. 

In working this through you get to two possible solutions for how to solve the problem of filling the "Lucas role". The first observation is that we have three players who are of high value and tick the "graft" box in central defence. We also have two players in the "craft" box who are our highest value full backs. This blend suits a 3-5-2 formation, with five from Adam, Henderson, Kuyt, Spearing, Bellamy, Maxi, Downing, Suarez, Carroll, Gerrard and Shelvey filling the other positions on the field. Who Kenny picks from that list depends on whether craft or graft is most suited to the occasion. Gerrard and Suarez are certain starters regardless of the opposition since they excel in both areas and are, at their best, world class. This system probably leaves no room for Spearing as his role will be covered off by the extra centre back. Here is how it could look whilst Gerrard is still out:

The second solution is to maintain the 4-4-2 / 4-2-3-1 formation and put in a direct replacement for Lucas. For this you need a player with high energy, good tackling ability and a cool head. Step forward Jay Spearing. He has all of these qualities in his game. The question is whether he can perform at a high enough level to be able to compensate for Lucas's loss.

The example I will draw on to answer this question is Lucas himself. The same questions being asked of him in replacing Mascherano are now being asked of Spearing in replacing Lucas. It is a classic case of apprentice turned master. Lucas stepped up to the plate, and so can Spearing. The dream scenario is for our future academy graduates, like Conor Coady, to look up to Spearing as a master of his art. If you think this sounds fanciful, read through the fans forum posts on Lucas from 2009. Only two years ago he was a figure of widespread ridicule. Here is the familiar looking shape with Spearing replacing Lucas:

Whichever way Kenny goes, the great thing is that he has options. There is a plan B if plan A fails. Plan A for me is for Spearing to come in and make the role his own. In that scenario, at least some good will have come from Lucas's poor fortune.

Exclusive Interview with Lucas Leiva

Here is the exclusive English version of Lucas Leiva's recent interview with LFC Brasil.
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Going straight to the questions, how was it for you when you knew Liverpool were interested in signing you? What were your expectations?

A: I found out about Liverpool’s interest in me in March 2007 when I was playing in the Libertadores Cup [like a Champions League of South America]. Rafael Benitez contacted my business manager and my father saying that he was interested in signing me. I was happy because my expectation was to go to a big club in Europe.

2) Much is said about how difficult it is for Brazilians to adapt to life in England, and it is well known that you had a difficult start both on and off the pitch. Did it help having Fabio Aurelio around?

A: It is always very difficult to switch countries, especially at such a young age (20 years). England is a country completely different from Brazil, from the language to the climate and the style of football. I had a very difficult start here in Liverpool, but I set my mind to the task of changing my style of play in order to succeed. Fabio helped me on my arrival, particularly within the club, but you end up with many things to learn by yourself. I had the awareness to change my style of football to improve and it paid off.

3) You were on the receiving end of a lot of criticism from fans, especially in your first season. How did this affect you?

A: As I said earlier, I had a very tough start in the club where I ended up getting a lot of criticism. I felt that there was a lot of mistrust, but I tried to stay focused so that I could become an important player for Liverpool. Gradually, through hard work and dedication, I’m getting there.

4) Throughout your difficult early career at Liverpool, Rafa Benitez always believed in you and your football. How was your relationship with him?

A: Rafa Benitez was very important for me because he always recognised my work. He saw that I had always been devoted to improving as a player, so he was confident even when I received a lot of criticism. I do not know if any other coach would have the patience he had with me. I will always be grateful.

 5)  The same fans who were so fierce in their criticism of you now worship you, even rating you as the most important player in the Liverpool team.  How did it feel to be voted Player of the Season by our fans?

A: The award I received last year just shows how much I have improved as a player and the fans recognised that. Fans are fuelled with passion. When you win you are a hero, when you lose they call for your head. I tried to understand this and tried to improve, to reach a level high enough to receive their acceptance. Thank God it happened. It has been a huge accomplishment for me.

6) We are all fans of your personality and how you have progressed in your career so far at Liverpool. In the game against Glasgow Rangers you captained the team from the beginning of the match. Do you dream of being the Liverpool captain one day?

A: I had been appointed captain in a Europe League game when Hodgson was in charge but the game against Rangers was remarkable for me, and Kenny Dalglish has always given me great confidence since the beginning of his work here. Being captain of Liverpool is a great responsibility. I hope to have other opportunities, it gives me huge pride.

7) Liverpool had a hard time last season on and off the field until the new owners took over. How did it impact the team?

A: The new owners are doing everything to give us the resources to win titles. The club have signed many new players. It is normal for a new team to take time to gel, but I see our team much stronger than last year, despite acknowledging that the results have not been as good as we would like.

8) Do you think your role on the team has evolved with the arrival of Kenny Dalglish? How is having King Kenny as coach?

A: Kenny Dalglish is considered the greatest player in the history of Liverpool. He won all possible titles as a player and as coach has been very successful. Kenny always gives me confidence. I've grown a lot since his arrival. He was a player so he understands what it means to be a part of a team. This helps in his relationship with the group.

9) Lucas, you were formed at Grêmio’s Academy, and the classic Gre-Nal (Grêmio vs Internacional) is considered as the greatest rivalry in Brazil, do you feel the same pressure in the Merseyside Derby?

A: At first I did not feel the same pressure as I did not understand the history of The Derby when I first arrived, but after a few years I started to understand what The Derby means for Liverpool fans. I now feel the same way before The Derby as I did before the Gre-Nals

 10) One last funny question that many wanted to know, will you ever let your hair grow again? With that mullet? (laughs)

A: My days with long hair are gone. I enjoyed that period a lot. I liked my long hair, but it is gone. My life is in a different place now. Honestly, I do not see myself ever having long hair again.

One more time thank you for your participation here. Not only the Liverpool fans, but all Brazilians are rooting for you to be a big success for both the club and the national team. And for sure, with the way you're going, you  already have our vote for the best Liverpool player this season. Thank you, Lucas!

Follow LFC Brasil on Twitter at www.twitter.com/LFCBrasil

You can see the Portuguese version at http://t.co/pUXQZsx

Luis Suarez Statement: Full Transcript in Spanish & English

If you read the national Newspapers today you will notice that they all translate the Suarez statement slightly differently. To clear things up, Argentinian Scouser Ale Natalia has got hold of the full transcript and translated it. Follow her on Twitter for great insights into Liverpool. https://twitter.com/#!/AleNatalia89 

Ok, here is the Spanish:

"Son cosas que pasan en el fútbol, cosas del momento, que a uno lo dejan mal. Ahora hay que esperar que se decida el tema y luego, tanto el jugador del Manchester como yo, vamos a tener que dejar las cosas claras. Y según para el lado que salga el fallo tendremos que pedir perdón. La Federación inglesa lo va a tener que aclarar con él, porque no hay pruebas de que yo le haya dicho algo racista. Y no se lo dije. Hubo dos partes de la discusión, una en español y otra en inglés. No lo insulté, solo fue una forma de expresarme. Lo llamé de una forma que sus propios compañeros del Manchester le dicen. Es más, ellos mismos se sorprendieron."

There might be some slight idiomatic differences from my Spanish (Rioplatense Spanish, not even 'normal' Argentine Spanish haha) to Uruguayan Spanish, but here we go in English:

"There are things that happen in football, things in [the heat of] the moment, that leaves someone feeling bad. Now we've got to wait to see this issue judged and then, as much for the Manchester player as me, we'll have to clear things up. And depending on where the judgement lies, one of us will have to say sorry. The English federation will have to clear it up with him, because there is no proof that I said anything racist. I didn't say it. There were two parts to the argument. One in Spanish and one in English. I didn't insult him, it was just my way of expressing myself. I called him something that his own team-mates at Manchester say to him. Moreover, [even] they were surprised".

Will Poor Chance Conversion Cost Liverpool a Top 4 Finish?

The biggest problem with Liverpool so far this season can be summed up by comparing the three statistics in the following table:

	Minutes Per Shot	% Of Shots on Target	% Shots Converted Into Goals
Man City	6	46%	22%
Man Utd	8	54%	22%
Chelsea	7	49%	17%
Tottenham	7	52%	15%
Arsenal	8	47%	19%
Liverpool	7	39%	9%

The first column shows how many minutes there are between each shot on goal. Manchester City have the most prolific attack, averaging a shot every 6 minutes. They are the only team in the league who shoot at goal more often than Liverpool. There is, therefore, nothing wrong with Liverpool's ability to create chances.

The second column shows how often each team hits the target. Manchester United are the most accurate in this area, hitting the target more times than they miss. Liverpool are the least accurate by a comfortable distance. 

The third column shows  how many shots are converted into goals. It is this stat more than any other which demonstrates our biggest weakness. The top two teams in the league convert 22% of their shots into goals, whilst Liverpool manage just 9%.

To put this into context, if Liverpool would have matched this 22% chance conversion, we would have scored a remarkable 33 goals so far this season. This equates to an extra 1.7 goals per game. The points those goals would have generated would have meant that, instead of fighting for fourth place, we would be in a title race.

Looking into the issue in more detail, here is how our four attacking players who have found their way onto the score sheet compare with each other:

	Minutes Per Shot	% Of Shots on Target	% Shots Converted into Goals
Bellamy	32	40%	20%
Hendo	65	60%	10%
Suarez	20	47%	9%
Carroll	26	40%	8%

Suarez and Carroll are clearly the main contributors to both our goals tally and our low shot conversion ratio. There have been calls for Craig Bellamy to be given an opportunity in attack, and the above stats would appear to endorse this view. Bellamy has been generally used as a substitute so far this season, and has been coming off the bench to play in wide positions. Taking this into account, the fact that he manages to have a shot on goal almost as often as Carroll is impressive. He also has the highest shot conversion ratio in the team. Many would argue that, given how poor we have been in this department, Bellamy would be unlikely to do any worse.

To put the player stats into context, Van Persie has a 30% conversion, Van Der Vaart has 25% and Torres has 15%. All higher than our front two.

Hitting the woodwork 10 times obviously does not help, but we have to start converting chances. Put simply, our poor chance conversion will cost us a place in the Champions League if it does not improve considerably. I will update these stats later in the season.

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